The Stopped-Clock Theory

Before I get to the subject of this column, I want to congratulate David Williams for his great win in the World Poker Tour Championship $25,000 event against a very tough field. David should be a role model to all aspiring poker professionals. He is not only a great player, but also a nice guy. After he finished second to Greg Raymer in the 2004 World Series of Poker main event, he didn’t let his ego overwhelm his good judgment. He played in moderate-stakes games, and continued to improve his skills without jeopardizing his freshly acquired bankroll.

I also want to recommend a brief article on probability from The New York Times. The link is: http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/25/chances-are/?hp.

You probably have heard the old saying, “Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.” We can interpret this as meaning that occasionally a very unreliable source provides correct information. An alternative interpretation is that the saying is discussing the times when someone gets lucky and is not deserving of his success. Certainly, this can be seen in poker situations. Let’s suppose that there is a player who always calls pot-sized bets on the river when all he can beat is a bluff. This will cost him money, but his opponents will sometimes be bluffing. The times that he wins the pot are his “twice a day” times of being right. If we examine him more closely, we might observe that he once played in a game in which his opponents bluffed way too much, and his policy made some sense. Over time, however, all but the least observant of opponents will realize that he always calls, and they’ll stop trying to bluff him. Now, he will be right in calling only when he is up against a new player, who doesn’t know that he always calls, or someone who knows that he always calls but still can’t resist the impulse of bluffing. (I have a lot more sympathy for the guy who always calls than I do for his opponent who, knowing that his bet will be called, bluffs anyway.) It is common to see someone fire a second or third bullet with nothing, even though his opponent appears to be calling all bets.

Both of these situations are exaggerations of fairly common phenomena. There are players who call too much, and there are players who bluff too much. Both should learn to shift gears. When you have been doing anything (in these cases, calling or bluffing) with a high frequency, your opponents will notice and adjust. If you call frequently, they will bluff less or not at all. If you realize that they have reduced their bluffing frequency, you can reduce your calling frequency until they adjust again. Likewise, if you have been bluffing a lot, especially unsuccessfully, your opponents will start to call your bets most of the time. At that point, you should stop bluffing and concentrate on value-betting. If possible, you also want to convince your opponents that your strategy is unchanged. For example, you have been calling too much. Your opponents have stopped bluffing. Your new policy is to call only with reasonable hands, not just with “bluff catchers” (hands that can beat only a bluff). When one of your opponents bets and you are going to fold a weak hand, don’t make it obvious. Pretend to think about calling. You might say something along the lines of, “I know you’re bluffing, but I can’t beat a bluff.” Then, reluctantly fold.

Another poker application of the stopped-clock theory is that you should judge a player’s tournament successes very cautiously. It is quite possible that he was the stopped clock that got lucky. Note that after a few years, the stopped clock can boast of a long string of successes. This brings us back to the beginning of this column; David Williams was smart enough to realize that one huge early success didn’t mean he was better than the best players in the world, even though he had beaten them in that particular WSOP. He continued to work on his game, manage his bankroll, and improve. Now, he probably is one of the better tournament players in the world. Nice work, David.

Steve “Zee” Zolotow, aka The Bald Eagle, is a successful games player. He currently devotes most of his time to poker. He can be found at many major tournaments and playing on Full Tilt, as one of its pros. When escaping from poker, he hangs out in his bars on Avenue A — Nice Guy Eddie’s and The Library near Houston, and Doc Holliday’s at 9th Street — in New York City.