The Implied Odds Problem - Utilizing the concept of implied odds in making a calling decision

Implied odds," as used in this column, applies to drawing hands after the flop. It is the amount of money you'll win if you make your draw divided by the cost of calling the current bet. It considers what is already in the pot plus the additional money that may be bet by others on future rounds. This allows for the possibility of pursuing draws even when the current pot odds are less than the drawing odds. To utilize this concept, the following considerations need to be addressed:


1. The possibility of making your draw and still losing: Obviously, the assumption is that if you make your hand, you'll win. But, if there is a significant possibility that someone else can make a better hand, you need to reconsider your decision. You will also lose additional money when you hit and lose.


2. The possibility of additional raising: The actual cost to pursue your draw may be higher than the cost of calling the current bet. If, after you call, someone raises, you will often be obliged to call the raise. This means that your implied odds are half of what you anticipated. It can get worse if someone else reraises before or after you call the raise. Whenever you get caught up in the "installment plan," your odds are frequently ruined.


3. Shortfall between current pot odds and drawing odds: Sometimes, the difference between the odds the pot is currently offering and your drawing odds on the next card is so great that folding is right despite the implied odds.


4. The possibility of splitting the pot: The assumption is that you will win the entire pot. If you have to split the pot with another player, your implied odds just got cut in half. Let's review some hands in which the implied odds are a key consideration in your play: Hand No. 1: You are in the big blind with the 4 3. Five people limp in, including the small blind, and you take a free play. There are six small bets in the pot. The flop comes A 9 2, giving you a straight draw with any 5. The small blind bets. What should you do?

Answer:Your current pot odds are 7-to-1. The chances of catching a 5 on the turn are four out of 47 unseen cards, so your drawing odds are 43-to-4 against, or about 11-to-1. Since you do not appear to have any other outs, it seems that you should fold. But should you call based on implied odds? If you call, one or two of the limpers most likely will call. If you catch a 5 on the turn, you can make a big bet and probably pick up at least one caller on both the turn and the river. When this happens, you will win a pot consisting of 12 or 13 small bets, excluding the bets you put in. This number may be higher if the small blind bets the turn and you raise, or if you get a lot of action on the turn when the small blind checks and you bet. Keep in mind that your opponents are unlikely to put you on a straight, making your hand well-disguised.

Could you catch a 5 and still lose or maybe tie? A 5 on the turn gives you the nuts. For you to lose, someone would have to have received help with a 5 and then catch something on the river that beats your straight. All such scenarios would involve "runner-runner" combinations, which are extremely unlikely.

Could the pot get raised after you call? No one raised preflop, so no one figures to have a big ace. If someone behind you has an ace, they may not raise out of fear that the small blind is leading out with a bigger ace or two pair. There is no flush draw or open-end straight draw on the board, so no one will be raising on a draw to get a free card.

The bottom line is that calling is reasonable, since you easily can win a large pot if you get lucky on the turn. Now, let us modify the first hand in a number of ways and see how it impacts our decision:

Hand 1a: Everything is the same except that we replace the 2 with the 2, so the flop becomes: A 92. What now?

Answer: This now becomes a clear fold. The two-flush means that the 5 makes it possible for one of your numerous opponents to complete a flush, or if not, make a flush on the river. You now have the possibility of making your straight and losing. This fact alone mandates folding. But, this board brings some of other factors into play. The pot may get raised behind you by someone on a flush draw. Furthermore, you may have only three clean outs with a 5 that is not a heart, so your drawing odds would be 15-to-1 instead of 11-to-1. This means that there is a bigger gap between your current pot odds and your implied odds.

Hand 1b: Everything is the same as the first example except that there are two limpers, including the small blind, instead of five limpers. Again, the small blind bets on the flop of A 9 2. What should you do with your 4 3?

Answer: Now, your pot odds are only 4-to-1 and your drawing odds remain unchanged at 11-to-1. Even if you hit a 5 and get action all the way to the river from the small blind, you will not win enough money to make up for this shortfall. You have an easy fold.

Hand 1c: Change the preflop action and the flop: You have four limpers with the small blind raising. You figure that all of the limpers will call, so your pot odds will be 11-to-1. After you call, an early limper decides to reraise. The other three limpers fold and the small blind calls. You call, since you are still getting the 11-to-1 pot odds you anticipated, and your call closes the action. The flop is the K 6 2, giving you a gutshot straight with any 5. The small blind bets. What should you do?

Answer: Although the 13-to-1 pot odds exceed your 11-to-1 drawing odds, you are now sandwiched between a bettor and a reraiser. The reraiser is marked with a strong hand like A-A, K-K, or maybe A-K suited. The chance of having to pay at least two bets and perhaps more to see the turn card is quite high. If you call, you could be taken for a multibet ride before you ever get to see the turn. Again, you have to fold.

Hand No. 2: You are in middle position with the A 10 and decide to limp in behind two early-position players. It is folded to the big blind, who checks. The big blind is a tight, unimaginative player. There are four and a half bets in the pot. The flop arrives with the J 10 2, giving you middle pair, top kicker. The big blind bets and one of the limpers calls. What should you do?

Hand No. 3: You are on the button with the Q 9. A loose-aggressive player raises from under the gun and three players call, including the cutoff. You call, as do both blinds. There are 14 small bets in the pot. The flop is the A K J, giving you a gutshot-straight draw. Both blinds check, the preflop raiser bets, the two other players call, and the cutoff raises. There are 19 bets in the pot and it costs you two bets to call. What should you do?

Answer:You are getting 9.5-to-1 pot odds and your draw is about 11-to-1 against. If you make your straight, you are well-positioned to get some extra bets on later streets. But yours is a one-card draw, so you could catch a 10 and be splitting the pot with someone who happens to have a queen. Furthermore, the presence of four Broadway cards may stifle future betting action. It also could get raised again. The implied odds are almost never there to play a one-card gutshot-straight draw.

To decide if the implied odds warrant a call when the pot odds are insufficient, you always must look at the specific situation and analyze the factors affecting your decision.