All serious poker players will run bad at various points during their poker careers, as it is inevitable. Many pros believe that the true test of skill for a poker player is not how they play when they are running well, but how they play when their luck deserts them and the poker gods frown upon them. Most decent players can play well when they are getting lucky, or even if they are just getting average luck, but after many weeks or months of bad beats, their games seem to crumble. For many players, running bad is a terrible downward cycle. First, they run bad and start losing money, which over a long enough period of time attacks their confidence, often causing them to incorrectly make changes to their game, which then results in losing more and more – even if their luck reverses and the cards start breaking even or going in their favor.

Having confidence in one's poker-playing ability is one of the most important traits of a consistent winning player. Losing that confidence is one of the most assured ways of turning a consistent winner into a very shaky player. It is truly amazing to see how quickly some players' confidence can be crushed by a bad run, even a relatively short one. I know players who have been winning consistently for years, and then start losing for a few weeks and immediately start doubting their playing ability. They start to think that maybe they have just been getting lucky up to that point in their poker careers. The reality of poker is that there is considerable variance in the game, and over a several year stretch, it would be unusual not to have weeks or even months in which a very good player lost money or broke even. However, in the midst of running bad, many players do not think very clearly and begin to doubt themselves, even though they are just going through a period of natural variance.

A winning player without confidence is like a baseball pitcher without any control of his pitches – he's not very effective. Winning players lacking confidence (WPLCs) will often make poor adjustments to their game. Occasionally, WPLCs will become overly aggressive, figuring that if they can't make a good hand stand up, they should try to bully their way out of a bad streak by stealing pots and playing looser than normal. This is often disastrous, as the WPLC likely has a poor table image because he has been running bad, and will often be called down by weak hands or played back at, making this adjustment ineffective. More often than not, though, WPLCs will play more passively than they normally do. This results in their missing many slim value bets that made them such consistent winners, or losing big pots post-flop by not raising with their moderately strong hands – thus allowing their opponents to draw cheaply to beat them. Oftentimes, a WPLC will lose a big pot because he failed to put in a raise at some point and knock out a weak draw, figuring that he is running bad and should take the more cautious approach and just call when an opponent bet in front of him. While just calling is sometimes the most cautious approach – and is often correct – don't base your decision on how to play a hand of poker on the fact that you lost the last 20 big pots that you played. Don't let bad (or good) luck determine how you play a hand; base your play on your poker experience and the sound logic that has enabled you to win consistently over the years. As the classic saying goes, the cards have no memory. Even if your aces have been cracked 15 times in a row, they are just as likely to hold up the 16th time as if you had won with them the last 15 times in a row.

Restoring one's confidence after a bad run can be very difficult, but it is also extremely important. There is no single correct approach to restoring your confidence. Some players like to take some time off from poker and give their "poker scars" time to heal. Other players like to play through a bad run. My advice is that if you're going to play through a bad run, you should try to lock up as many wins as possible, even if they are very small ones. For me personally, nothing improves my poker confidence more than locking up some wins. Oftentimes, the actual amounts don't matter; a win is a win emotionally. Start playing, and if you are up a little, quit (unless the game is amazing). Also, I recommend being more careful with your game selection when trying to restore your confidence. Playing shorthanded or heads up (where the variance is intrinsically much higher) is not recommended when you're not feeling confident about your game. Try to play in passive games, where you have a high short-term expectation. Some players like to use a stop-loss when they are running bad (often around 30 big bets), whereby if they lose that amount, they quit for the day. I have never used the stop-loss method, but I encourage players to try it if they are really running bad and see how it works for them. Even the best players in the world go through periods of low poker confidence, and I am no exception. Recently, I have been running bad, and it seems like everything has been conspiring against me to keep me from winning. However, every time I feel my confidence begin to fade, I either take a break from poker or lock up some small wins. And pretty soon, my confidence is back and I am playing my best again.

Good luck, and try to keep your spirits high, through both the good and the bad runs!

Thomas "Thunder" Keller is a 24-year-old professional poker player and one of poker's young and rising stars. He can often be found playing at Ultimatebet.com under the name thunderkeller. To learn more about him, go to his website at www.thomaskeller.com.