The Phenomenon of the No. 1 Starter - Wagering considerations when a team's best pitcher is slated to pitch

These days of push-button managing in major league baseball have helped produce the phenomenon of the "No. 1 starter." In decades past, when the leagues were smaller and starting pitchers went to the mound every fourth day, managers used more discretion when setting pitching rotations for upcoming games.

Old Yankee fans will recall how Casey Stengel frequently used to save the wonderful Whitey Ford to face certain teams in the American League pennant race, skipping Ford's normal start for one, two, or even more days until the marvelous left-hander was facing a certain team or opposing pitcher when Stengel wanted him on the mound. More often than not, Stengel got that desired important victory in the pennant race, but many Yankee fans believed Stengel's use of the "Chairman of the Board" in that fashion cost the little lefty many 20-victory seasons and perhaps a shot at the Hall of Fame. [Ford made it anyway, with a record of 236-106, which gave him the best winning percentage of any 20th-century pitcher (.690) when he went in.] For years, the Braves' great left-hander, Warren Spahn, was held back from pitching against the Dodgers and all of their right-handed power, especially at cozy Ebbetts Field in Brooklyn. You get the idea. A little thinking was involved. (Wow!)

In today's world, it seems as if every team feels the need to categorize its pitchers: the No. 1 starter; its No. 2 starter, starters 3, 4, and 5; the "sixth" starter, who is the emergency starter in-waiting in case of injury, becomes the "long man" in the bullpen. Today's relief corps, from the top down, consists of the closer, the ace setup guy, the second setup guy, the lefty specialist (who can get out that key hitter or two), and perhaps another "long man," who is generally found on lower-rung teams whose starters frequently get knocked out of the box early.

Everybody has a defined role. Most closers go no more than one inning; only a few are allowed to go one-plus or two innings. Even if the ace setup guy might get three outs on just six pitches in the eighth inning of a 3-2 game, the manager usually pushes the "closer" button in the ninth. After all, that's how the designated closer gets his "saves."

But let's get back to today's phenomenon of the No. 1 starter. This is the pitcher who's presumed to be the top guy – the one who's reliable, who goes every fifth game. He's the one who's supposed to prevent any long losing streaks. He's the one who gives his team the best shot against the other team's No. 1 starter. He's not always the opening-day starter, as many season-opener assignments are awarded on the basis of respect for seniority when a team has several good pitchers.

The problem from a wagering standpoint is that the oddsmakers often set the "prices" on games at quite high levels when such pitchers are starting. So, even though the chances of their team winning that game are substantially greater, you might want to adjust your betting a little. When a No. 1 guy and his team are red-hot, consider a wager on the runs line, laying 1.5 runs at better odds. When the opponent is a very weak offensive team, consider playing the "under" on the game, instead of the side. (Remember, if just one of the teams in a game is held to fewer than three runs, the chances of that game going "over" drop precipitously.) If the No. 1 guy is facing a very weak opposing starter, you might consider the "over," because the ace usually gets better run support. If the No. 1 starter is on a very weak hitting team, the "under" might be the best way to go. The latter is a useful axiom regarding those No. starters who almost always pitch well, but who seem "snakebitten" in terms of getting wins because of poor hitting behind them.

Here's one other important idea: Beware of the No. 1 starter who goes bad! This happens to three or four ace starters every year because of age, arm troubles, team injuries, or just bad luck. Don't try to pick the spot when they'll get back on track or return to form. You'll generally be better off taking the odds and going against them when they're favored as they descend.

Chuck Sippl is the senior editor of the Gold Sheet, the first word in sports handicapping for 48 years. The amazingly compact Gold Sheet features analysis of every football and basketball game, exclusive insider reports, widely followed Power Ratings, and a Special Ticker of key injuries and team chemistry. Look for the extraordinary 2005 Gold Sheet Football Annual on newsstands nationwide to start your handicapping. Or, you can reserve your copy by calling The Gold Sheet at (800) 798-GOLD (4653), and be sure to mention you read about it in Card Player. You can look up The Gold Sheet on the web at www.goldsheet.com..