In Part I of this column, I took a close look at the somewhat fuzzy thinking that quite a few poker players have when it comes to money. That is, people seem to think the value of the chips in play is entirely different from the value of the money they keep in their wallets. Today, I will dig into this matter a little deeper and take a look at the value of money in poker games, where EV (expected value) is involved.
One Out is Better Than No Outs
A while ago, I won a huge pot in my regular pot-limit Omaha game when only one card could have helped me on the river – and, of course, it came. When my opponents tried to convince me how incredibly lucky I had been, I replied: "Yes, you are right, I've been very, very lucky – that is correct. But one out is better than no outs." Nowadays, this line has become somewhat of a running gag in our game. Every time that someone with very few outs wins a pot, he will say: "See, I listened to Rolf. One out is better than no outs." Of course, this is a gross oversimplification of the way poker should be played, but it is still an important concept, especially when it comes to big-bet poker. Often, you will find yourself in a situation in which you might be a very large favorite, but in the unlikely event that someone holds an even bigger hand than yours, you might be drawing dead. For instance, in a no-limit hold'em game, if you put all of your money into the pot on the flop while holding a king-high flush, you will win the pot (or be the favorite to win) a very large percentage of the time. But the small percentage of the time that you do
not hold the best hand, you will have put all of your money into the pot with no chance of winning at all! Even though this sometimes cannot be avoided, I always try to get myself in a situation in which, even in the worst-case scenario of being up against the absolute nuts, I will still have some chance of outdrawing my opponent – even when the chance is just a very slight one.
An Example
In a pot-limit Omaha game, if I am playing a relatively short stack and my opponent is betting on the turn with what might be top set, but just as well might be something like two pair, a draw, or even a total bluff, I usually am not afraid to put all of my money into the pot with something like middle or bottom set when I have the backup of as little as a gutshot-straight draw. Now, even if I'm up against the only hand that I do not want to see (top set), I still might have up to five outs to win the pot – which changes my expectation rather dramatically. If in this same situation I would be putting, say, $500 in the pot while drawing dead (as would be the case in the example of the king-high flush versus the ace-high flush), I would have an expectation of -$500. But in the situation in which I would be drawing to a mere five-outer with just one card to come (assuming something like $250 in the pot already, for a total pot of $1,250 and 42 unseen cards: 52 cards minus the four on the board, the four in my hand, and the two cards in my opponent's hand that are "known"), I still could expect to get back 5/42 × 1,250=$149. This means that even in this worst-case scenario, I would expect to lose "only" $351, as opposed to $500, which is an improvement of almost 30 percent. And I haven't even calculated my expectation in the more likely case that I am putting in my money with the current best hand. What's more, the calculations I have done here assume that the betting takes place on the turn, with just one card to come. If all the money goes in on the flop – which is probably more likely with the hands distributed like this, and the shallow money – I would have
two chances to improve my hand and would be making even less of a mistake, even though my opponents will still claim that I've just been lucky when I do manage to improve over my opponent's top set.
Some Final Words
It is a well-known fact that for quite a few people, the value of the chips in play is not the same as the amount of money that these chips are worth. We all have heard the phrase, "Well, it's only plastic." In fact, I have heard people utter this phrase in all kinds of different languages, in countries all over the world. While it is important not to disregard the value of money once the bills have been turned into chips, it is equally important not to become scared or intimidated by the stakes for which you play. If you face a $2,500 bet and have the current nuts, but are afraid to put your stack into the pot because you think of all the things you could buy for this kind of money, you obviously shouldn't be playing in the first place. If you let go of a highly positive EV situation out of fear of losing the money, you have entered the game with the wrong mindset. On the other hand, you should not take things as far as the high-stakes poker player in the hamburger joint, who was so stingy that he refused to spend a little money on some extra cheese because there would be no direct return on his investment. All in all, I would recommend the following things when it comes to money:
1. Stay focused on always playing your best game.
2. Don't lose sight of the money at stake, but don't be intimidated by the stakes, either.
3. Try to find the proper balance between saving money to play poker and spending enough that you and your partner can enjoy the rich and prosperous life that you've worked so hard to achieve.
If you can accomplish all of this, I would say that you have a keen eye on the value of money, and have paved the way to becoming a truly successful person – in poker as well as in life.
Part I of this series can be found at www.cardplayer.com
